Well the eclipse is over and it was definitely a wondrous experience. I got to experience less than a minute of totality from the hills south of Maupin. The temperature drop, the twilight look…and finally the sudden darkening of the sky.

Anyway. We have a big hot ridgy pattern developing right now, and is expected to stick around for the majority of the next 14 days. Today’s high was 95 after a morning low of 55, and as of 10pm the airport was already down to 73. That’s the longer nights beginning to have an effect on cooling in the lower atmosphere. I fully expect we will be back in the upper 50s before dawn.

But tomorrow should be back up close to 100 degrees in The Dalles, and even a touch hotter Monday. The “death ridge” pattern has returned to the Western U.S. and is expected to stick around through much of early September. Here is last night’s 00z ECMWF map for Monday afternoon:

850mb temps of about +26 or +27 over The Dalles that afternoon! Anytime between mid-June and mid-August that would probably be good for 105-108 degrees. But when it’s only one week before Labor Day? You probably have to deduct a few degrees as a “Weak Sun Penalty”, which is how the official forecasts come up with a 102 or 103. We will see what happens, but I wouldn’t be too shocked if we hit 104-105. (The daily record for August 28 is 102.)

We have three very hot days (Sunday-Tuesday) on tap. Then a modest cooldown for a couple days, maybe into the low 90s. But look what the 12z GFS tries to give us, for Labor Day Weekend and beyond:

…OUCH! Nearly all the ensemble members agree on a long period of hot weather, and the only disagreement is over just how hot. The aggressive solution (like the operational in black) could give us several days 100-105 in the first week of September – at least as bad as 2011’s heatwave if not a smidge worse. More conservative members keep us mainly in the 90s, but by early September that’s still 10 degrees or more above seasonal norms.

By the way…this stubborn Western death ridge is contributing to Hurricane Harvey’s stubborn motion in Texas, and hence the catastrophic rainfall totals. So this time the upper-level pattern really is a “lose-lose” situation!

Sorry folks…maybe we get some crisp fall days toward the middle of the month instead?