Well…here we are again folks, in the middle of heatwave #3.

Weather models the past couple weeks have really struggled with the long-range forecast. Back during our lengthy late July inferno, there was a strong signal that we would have a mild-to-cool pattern for the first 7-10 days of August. But instead, yesterday Tuesday it was 106 degrees F outside in The Dalles!

There’s also a lot of haze outside from wildfires in California and southern Oregon. Most of it is staying in the upper levels; only the larger, visible particulates seem to be descending and cluttering the lower atmosphere. Not only does this smoke make the sunrises & sunsets ruby red…it also limits the amount of solar energy reaching the surface. Yesterday’s smoke wasn’t extremely dense, probably only enough to make 2 or 3 degrees’ difference for surface heating.

I say that, because…the airmass is slated to get even hotter today and tomorrow. Here is last night’s 00z GFS image for 5pm, tomorrow:

That’s an absolute scorcher! Temperatures of 30 degrees Celsius (86 Fahrenheit) up near the 5,000 foot level? Without any smoke in the sky this could easily get us into the low 110s. But it’s smoky outside, so we have to deduct a few degrees for that. I still think 108-110 is possible today and tomorrow, provided the sky doesn’t “go full Mordor” on us.

Friday we get a sudden push of cool air from the west, and Saturday we could actually stay in the low 80s. BUT….models have once again flipped on us, and are now showing signs of a 4th heat event next week. This is starting to get obnoxious; after three consecutive heatwaves in less than a month, we could sure use a cool week about now. Even worse, next week also shows more offshore flow than this week, which increases forest fire danger west of the Cascade crest.

One thing that may help us out? By next week the longer nights could start to play a factor in our night / early morning temps. Mid-August is a little early to get the same kind of effect you see in September, but it can happen. There will likely be cool Canadian air to our northeast early next week, driving northeasterly flow through the Columbia Basin for a couple days. This might be enough to give us a few 55-60 degree mornings as we transition back into the heat.